Hurricane Yaas, Tauktae and Amphan strings are associated with climate change

Just a week after facing the devastation of the storm in nine states of India, the country is now gearing up for its second cyclonic storm Yaas in the Bay of Bengal. Like Tauktae’s journey, the tropical storm Yaas is also intensifying rapidly.

Storm Yaas is currently seen as a severe cyclonic storm, churning east-central and west-west of the adjoining Bay of Bengal, with a sustained wind speed of 100–115 kmph, and Speeds up to 125 kmph (track live updates here).

Currently, the storm is about 320 km south-southeast of Yaas Paradip, 430 km south-southeast of Balasore and 420 km south-southeast of Digha, and 470 km south-southwest from Khepupara. According to meteorologists (thunderstorms), the storm is moving towards favorable weather conditions and the storm will quickly turn into a very severe cyclone by the afternoon of 25 May, with speeds ranging from 125-135 kmph to 150 km / h. Winds up to a speed of km per hour will be used. In the following hours it is likely to become more stressed until landfall, which will increase the wind speed.

According to Skymet Weather (Skymet Weather) meteorologist Mahesh Palawat, the tropical storm will track north-northwest, between 11 am and 1 pm on May 26, between Paradip and Sagar Islands around Balasore, northern Odisha and There is a huge possibility of making landfall on the coasts of West Bengal. At landfall, we can expect winds of 160-170 kmph with winds up to 185 kmph. Strong winds accompanied by widespread rains and thunderstorms have started over the coastal areas of Odisha and adjoining West Bengal coast. Following is the expected track of Storm Yaas.

Once again, the cause of cyclogenesis is climate change. The Indian seas have been exceptionally warm this year compared to normal, making atmospheric and ocean conditions favorable for the frequent formation and intensification of cyclones. Palawat has also stated that the major point of focus is rapid intensification (rapid intensification), as it will have a direct effect on floods and strong winds and destruction and rains in the form of evacuation process.

The threshold value (boundary value) for sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (SSTs) for storm formation is 28 ° C. Currently, SST is around 31 ° C – 32 ° C over the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea.

The same trend was seen in the storm and now the storm was seen. Although the response of both storms is the same, but there is a slight difference in geography related to these two.

According to Dr. Roxy Matthew Cole, Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, lead author, IPCC (IPCC) Oceans and Cryosphere, “The similarity between storm storms and storm storms is that both had very high sea surface temperatures before , Which reached 31–32 ° C. These high temperatures were conducive to turning into a very severe cyclone within a short period of the storm. Likewise, high temperature storms are also predicted to help intensify Yaas. But, there is a difference.

The storm remained in the Arabian Sea for several days, where it could continuously draw heat and humidity, and reached peak intensity of more than 220 km / h. In the case of the storm Yaas, it forms in the northern Bay of Bengal, and the travel distance to landfall is short. As a result, the intensity of the blows over the ocean will not get long periods to become vigorous. The common element here is that rising sea temperatures in both valleys are helping these cyclones in their “rapid intensification” (“rapid intensification”) process. Otherwise, we do not see a significant increase in the number of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal, as we see in the Arabian Sea. “

“Rapid intensification” (“rapid intensification”) is expected to be frequent and more frequent in this century with continued climate change. One study found that the rate of intensification (intensification) that occurs once in a century may occur every 5–10 years by 2100.

Mahesh Palawat also stated that, “Though the intensity of the storm Yaas will be lower than that of the storm storm, it will prove to be very strong in terms of damage. At the time of landfall, the storm Yaas has a speed of 165-175 kmph at 185 km Flood rains are expected along with winds of up to an hour. Coastal Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand are likely to be on red alert for widespread torrential rains and destructive winds. “

Storm surge
A possible storm surge from a thunderstorm may be the most dangerous risk of a thunderstorm. Global climate change has been a contributing factor in rising sea levels, and as a result is likely to increase the risk of storm surge.

Global sea levels have already risen by about 23 cm as a result of human carbon emissions – drastically increasing the distance to which a storm wave can reach. In recent years, the sea level in the North Indian Ocean has increased more rapidly than in other places.

According to a major 2019 study in the journal Nature, India and Bangladesh could experience severe annual coastal flooding by 2050, affecting 36 million people in India and 42 million in Bangladesh.

As per the warning issued by the state-run IMD (IMD): Tidal waves of altitude 2-4 meters above the astronomical tides are low lying areas of Jhargram, South 24 Parganas, Medinipur, Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur around the time of landfall. Is likely to be submerged.

Socio-Economic Impact of Storms

Along with extreme weather events there is also loss of life and mass destruction which also has socio-economic impact. According to a report, Counting the Cost 2020: A Year of Climate Breakdown by Christian Aid, December 2020 (A Year of Climate Breakdown by Christian Aid in December 2020) Due to the maximum loss of life globally, floods and storms in India were caused by the storm. In fact, the storm was the costliest cyclone of the year and had an economic impact of more than $ 13 billion (about Rs 96,000 crore). The report said that the storm Amphan had caused the most damage to coastal parts of West Bengal displacing around 4.9 million people, the largest displacement due to extreme weather event anywhere in the world in 2020.

The storm is posing a similar threat to the Yaas Indian coast, this time the Odisha coast. According to meteorologist Mahesh Palawat, we cannot survive the devastation in the coastal districts of Odisha as Yaas will hit the ground in the form of a very severe cyclonic storm. At the time of landfall, we can expect torrential rain as well as winds blowing at speeds up to 185 kmph, which flood the lowlands, and large ones such as the uprooting of trees, electric poles, roofs and ravine and pucca houses Scale can cause destruction.

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