Serious 150 percent increase in the frequency of cyclones

There has been an alarming increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea as compared to the past. So dangerous, that it can be guessed from the fact that ‘Very Severe’ or extremely serious An increase of 150% has been recorded in the frequency of cyclones.

This is the claim of a new study by scientists of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology), Pune. There was this study claims that an increase of 52% in the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea between 2001 and 2019, while ‘Very Severe’ (very serious’) increased by 150% in cyclones. But in the meantime, the Bay of Bengal has seen a reduction of 8% in cyclonic storms. springer Bay of Bengal in the published paper, “Changing the status of Tropical Saiclons over the north Indian Ocean” in the Journal and the Arabian Sea, tropical cyclonic activity, frequency, duration, both in 1982, by 2019, 38 years, distribution, origin places and their tracks reference has been examined.

The study establishes that while traditionally ocean and atmospheric conditions were more favorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea , scientists are seeing an increasing abnormal pattern in cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea. In 2015, a post in a two exceedingly severe cyclonic storm, Chapala and Megha, came within a few months, while the ocean in 2018, three cyclones of seven billion. The North Indian Ocean saw maximum cyclonic activity in 2019 , adding eight such events , five of which formed in the Arabian Sea. In 2020, Cyclone Nisarga Mumbai had first recorded went event in the history-making Landfol Maharashtra coast, and was the most powerful cyclone that affects all four states along the western coast of India Tukte 2021.

Dr. Roxy Mathew Cole , Senior Scientist , IITM, Pune “The billion increase in cyclonic activity in the ocean, because the ocean rising temperatures and global warming is linked to the strength of the growing availability of moisture. This implies not only an increase in the number of such events , but also a change in the pattern and behavior of cyclonic activity in the North Indian Ocean. The intensity of these events as well as the total duration of cyclones has increased significantly. “

According to the study, 92 were tropical cyclones between 2000 and 1982, of which 30% “Very Severe Cyclonic Storm” ( “very severe cyclonic storm”) to change the category, while went up to number between 2001 and 2019 100, which the increased 36% “very severe ‘(‘ very serious’). May-June is the first peak season (peak season) for cyclones in the Arabian Sea and October-November the second. The Bay of Bengal is active throughout the year except in February and August , although its peak (peak) occurs in April-May and again in November. The interesting thing is that an increase of 80% in the total duration of the cyclones in the Arabian Sea during the last two decades, while ‘Very Severe’ (very serious’) has increased by 260% over a period of cyclones. No significant change in the duration of cyclones has been observed in the Bay of Bengal.

In the Arabian Sea also, the intensity of cyclones has increased by about 20% ( post -monsoon) to 40% ( pre-monsoon). The origin and intensity of cyclones are governed by various parameters such as sea ​​surface temperature , relative humidity , moist static energy , low-level vorticity , vertical wind shear, etc. The study claims that during the pre-monsoon genesis patterns are increasing near Somalia and over parts of the central Arabian Sea , but decreasing near Oman and Yemen. However, the declining trend in Genesis patterns over the eastern Bay of Bengal, a growing trend in the western Bay of Bengal went viewed. During the post-monsoon period , there is a significant rising trend over East Arabian Sea and a decreasing trend over West Bay of Bengal.

Previous studies have shown the effect of rapid warming of the entire north Indian Ocean in the form of increasing cyclonic activity across the Indian coast. Although the study notes that despite this, sea surface temperatures show significant pre-monsoon increases over the entire Arabian Sea and the north-eastern part of the Bay of Bengal , tropical cyclone heat capacity is limited only to the Indian coast of the Arabian Sea and the eastern and eastern parts of the Bay of Bengal. It is increasing over parts of central Bay of Bengal , indicating a warning trend for India.

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