Weather update: Northeast India likely to heavy rains from 29 March to 3 April

New Delhi: According to the National Meteorological Forecasting Center of the Indian Meteorological Department, due to active western disturbances and the resulting cyclonic conditions, heavy rainfall / snowfall / thunderstorms occurred in the western Himalayan region and Punjab from 22 March to 24 March 2021.

During this period, there were sporadic rains / thunderstorms in northwestern and other parts of central India adjoining it. During 22 to 24 March, there was a hailstorm / dust storm in Rajasthan for a day or two.

Due to the cyclonic condition, scattered rains / thunderstorms occurred in the central part of the country in the last week (March 18 to 24, 2021).

Due to strong southwesterly and low winds running from Bay of Bengal, there is a forecast of widespread and widespread rainfall in northeastern India during the period from 29 March to 3 April 2021. . There is also a possibility of flood situation in this area during this period.

Strong winds are likely to occur in Saurashtra and Kutch and Konkan and Goa during 25 to 27 March 2021 and in some areas in North Gujarat region on 27 and 28 March 2021.
Forecast for the next two weeks

Weather system and associated precipitation during the first week (25 to 31 March, 2021) and second week (1 to 7 April, 2021)

Rainfall conditions in the first week (25 to 31 March 2021)

Due to fresh western disturbance on 28-29 March 2021, there is a possibility of rain / snow in the western Himalayan region from isolated to very large areas. Along with this, there is a possibility of lightning in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and heavy thunderstorms, lightning strikes and hail in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan and Muzaffarabad.

Heavy to very heavy thunderstorms / thunderstorms / lightning / thunderstorms in Northeast India from 29th March to 3rd April, 2021 due to strong low southwesterly winds from Bay of Bengal. And there is a possibility of heavy rain at some places. Due to this, there is a possibility of landslides and inundation at some places during this period.

There are chances of scattered rains and thunderstorms in most parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Telangana, Kerala and Mahe and coastal and southern interior parts of Karnataka during most of the first week. (Appendix-IV)

There is a possibility of normal and above-normal rainfall in some areas of the north-eastern state and Kerala and less than normal rainfall in other parts of the country. (Appendix-V)
Rainfall in second week (1st to 7th April, 2021)

Due to strong low southwesterly winds originating from the Bay of Bengal, the northeastern states are expected to receive very wide to moderate rainfall and heavy to very heavy rainfall in the first half of the second week. As a result, the region is expected to receive more than normal rainfall.

In the absence of any active western disturbance, the rainfall is expected to be below normal in northwest India, it is likely to remain below normal to normal in other parts of the country.

Temperature in the first and second week (25 March to 7 April 2021)

In the first half of the first week, the maximum temperature in northwest India is estimated to increase by 4-6 degree Celsius respectively. Maximum temperatures are likely to rise by 3-5 degrees Celsius in most parts of central India over this period and 2-4 degrees Celsius in most parts of eastern, western and peninsular India respectively.

There is no possibility of hot winds in the rest of the country except Saurashtra and Kutch and Goa and Konkan areas in the next 4-5 days. There is a high probability of hot winds in Saurashtra and parts of Kutch and Konkan and Goa during March 25 to 27 and in North Gujarat region on March 27-28, 2021.

During the second week, the maximum temperature is expected to rise progressively due to the dry season in most parts of the country except north-eastern India. Therefore, maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal in Northwest, East India and East Coast parts of the country. Its northern peninsula region and adjoining central India is likely to be 1-2 degree Celsius below normal. (Appendix-VI)

Cyclogenesis
During the latter half of the first week (March 26, 2021 to April 1, 2021) the cyclonic fraction (cyclogenesis) over the southeastern Bay of Bengal is highly unlikely.

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