At present, the monsoon has arrived in India, but the mood has changed due to the occurrence of this weather. Anyway, the Indian monsoon is a complex phenomenon and according to experts, climate change and global warming have put further stress on the situation of monsoon formation. Statistics show that the record of rainfall has exceeded the previous record every year.
The impact of climate change on the monsoon is a worrying thing. Explaining how dire the situation is, Aarti Khosla, Director, Climate Trends, says, “The rainfall across the country is driven by the Indian monsoon as more than 70% of the annual rainfall is received during the four months of this season. India receives 881 mm of rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September. July and August are the wettest months, receiving 2/3 of the season’s rainfall. The southwest monsoon is very important for the agriculture sector as it accounts for about 14 percent of India’s GDP. The situation is clear from these given figures that how important is monsoon and how much effect it has on our economy and then on the development of the country.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in 2020, + 0.29 ° C in annual temperature departures India It was the eighth highest since the national record began in 1901 . 2016 was the hottest year in India with a temperature departure of + 0.71°C . Twelve of India’s 15 warmest years have occurred since 2006 .
The global temperature profile is showing an increasing trend. it is estimated that We Business Age Usual scenario, you can estimate by 2050, the overall increase of 1.5 ° C or more . According to meteorologists, climate change, global combination of warming and constant El Nino has caused unusually warm weather conditions in India since the start of records in 1950.
NASA ‘s Goddard Institute for Space Studies says that , 2016 K Stuff (Which Was the Previous Record for Warmest Year) , 2020 It was the hottest year on record.
Trends over the past 30 years clearly indicate that global warming is largely due to human-induced activities , which alter climate patterns and annual weather systems.
gp Sharma , Ex – AVM Meteorology , Indian Air Force and President-Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather , said , “ Monsoons are largely driven by sea temperatures , hence the arrival , withdrawal and continuation of monsoons. Mainly ocean heat is directed by material. Rising global temperatures have led to an increase in sea temperature , which has affected the Indian monsoon pattern to a great extent. Oceans were exceptionally warm in 2020 Because the annual global sea surface temperature was 20 the third highest at 1.37 ° F above the record average of century – was only in 2016 and 2019 that warmer years. Where the first has an average dry 1 once every 15 years, but had drained three times in the past decade. “
El Nio and La Nia
The well-known ocean-atmospheric phenomena , El Nio and La Nia , are also increasing. While El Nio has an inverse relationship with the Indian monsoon rainfall , La Nia is associated with good monsoon rainfall. For example , India had severe droughts in 2014 and 2015 due to El Nio , while 2020 received above-normal rainfall due to current La Nia conditions.
Although weather experts El Nino is growing directly do not see it as a branch of global warming, the intensity of El Nino events the warm oceans due to global warming, frequency and duration.
“Amazing as it does on the El Nino and an increase in La Nina events, which directly affect the monsoon. The worst part about both these events is that their early signals come too late. With the increasing number of El Nios and climate change , droughts will only add to the uncertainties related to agriculture and rural livelihoods ,” G.P. Sharma said.
Monsoon rain fall
Factors such as the frequency of El Nio , weak monsoon circulation , increased air pollution and warming of the Indian Ocean are influencing the duration of rainfall. According to a report , Proportional Trends of Continuous Rainfall in Indian Summer Monsoon ( Proportional Trend of Continuous Rainfall in the Indian Summer Monsoon ) , the rainfall trend from 1951 to 2018 declined in the first 45 days ( June 1 to July 15 ) of the onset of monsoon. shows the trend. The total number of rainy days in the rice harvest season (ie, the first 45 days, the harvest season, from the beginning of the monsoon) than in India, the first period is less than half the time during the late period.
erratic rain distribution
Monsoon rainfall variability in different regions of the country directly affects the growth and socio-economic composition of rainfed crops. It is observed that the distribution of rainfall during monsoon has now become erratic. The erratic behavior of monsoon and its irregularities cannot be taken lightly.
Indian Tropical Meteorology Institute, a climate scientist at the Pune, Dr Roxy Matthew Cole, said, “From 1950 to 2015 increased decline in annual precipitation between India and extreme precipitation events. Excessive rainfall events in Central India The main reason for the increase is an increase in the supply of moisture from the Arabian Sea. The decrease in annual rainfall is attributed to the weakening of the Indian monsoon circulation and the reduction of low pressure systems.
Proporsnl trends of Continuous Renfol in Indian Summer Monsoon Monsoon ( Indian summer monsoon rainfall continued proportional trend shows) According to the report, in 1985 the number of rainy days by 2018 fall during July in all regions of India. Overall , the number of rainy days shows a decreasing trend in the summer season and months , except June , in India .
extreme weather events
Monsoon rains have not only reduced , but the pattern of rain showers has also become inconsistent. This is directly related to an increase in the incidence of heavy and extreme rainfall. Significant increase in extreme rainfall events over West Coast and Central India using daily rainfall data during the period 1951-2005 has been seen.
According to a report by CEEW, Prepring India for extreme climate events ( India’s preparation for the climate extreme events ), Micro (micro) monsoon due to the continued increase in temperature has been weak. More than 40 percent of districts in India extreme events grow in drought-prone flood-prone areas such as contrast patterns, both have changed.
States such as Maharashtra , Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh witnessed severe water scarcity during 2015 due to record-breaking summer temperatures and a weak monsoon . Rajkot, Surendranagar, are Ajmer, Jodhpur, Aurangabad, and some other districts, where we observed a tendency toward dry flood. In some districts of Bihar , Uttar Pradesh , Odisha and Tamil Nadu, drought and flood events were observed simultaneously. The trends are alarming and require a comprehensive risk assessment at the local level .
impact on agriculture
These extreme events caused by global warming also had an adverse effect on agriculture , especially for India where a large part of the cultivated land is still dependent on monsoon rains. India is an agriculturally driven economy , most of which The population is engaged in agriculture and allied activities. The ongoing changes in the monsoon pattern have a great impact on the farmers , which ultimately leads to agricultural productivity. Given the indifferent behavior of the monsoon due to climate change and global warming, more and more studies are needed to understand its dynamics. As of now , there is no significant mitigation of agro-risk in near future due to unstable nature of monsoon.