Exit polls on Thursday showed disagreement over the results of the assembly elections in three out of five states, while broadly agreeing that Congress had a lead in Telangana and Chhattisgarh. The differences were mainly over Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and to a lesser extent over Mizoram.
If Sunday’s results reflect what the polls are predicting – a big deal based on experience – then this round of voting, which many are treating as a semi-final, will give both sides a chance to stake their claim. There will be ample opportunity that they have the momentum to move forward. Lok Sabha elections in 2024.
Of the six surveys analyzed here (Times Now-ETG, India Today-My Axis India, Dainik Bhaskar, Republic Matrix, ABP-C Voter, News 24-Today’s Chanakya), two gave the BJP a decisive mandate in Madhya Pradesh, one suggested that the BJP second that the Congress would win a simple majority and two others put the Congress slightly ahead in a close contest, leading to the possibility of a hung assembly.
On Rajasthan, two surveys gave a clear majority to the BJP, one gave a majority to the Congress and the rest predicted a very close contest. Of these also, two put forward BJP and one put forward Congress.
Possibility of first hung House in Mizoram: Exit poll
On Telangana, all surveys agreed that the Congress is in top position, although in some cases the lower end of the range of projected seats may keep the party short of a majority. If the surveys prove correct, the BRS will be out of office in the state for the first time since its inception a decade ago.
Similarly, all surveys in Chhattisgarh show the Congress ahead, albeit in a much tighter contest than expected a few months ago. Only a survey conducted by Today’s Chanakya for News 24 gave a clear mandate to the Congress in the 90-member assembly.
In Mizoram, there was disagreement in the survey on whether Mizo National Front (MNF) or Zoram People’s Movement (PM) was ahead in the race to form the government, but all agreed that Congress was third in the race. Only one of the surveys, India Today-My Axis India, gave a clear mandate to the ZPM in the 40-member House. If the results yield a hung House, it will be a first for the state