FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey also said that the current festive season will support this momentum.
With regard to going back to the process of normalization, it was largely felt that the Reserve Bank may indicate a change of stance from liberal to neutral in the February 2022 policy meeting, the survey said.
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FICCI on Thursday said India’s GDP is expected to grow at 9.1 per cent in 2021-22, as economic recovery, after the second wave of the pandemic, is gaining ground.
However, the industry body cautioned that a possible spurt in the movement of people during Diwali could again lead to an increase in the number of COVID cases.
“The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey has placed the annual average GDP growth for 2021-22 at 9.1 per cent. This is a marginal improvement from the 9 per cent growth forecast recorded in the previous survey round (July 2021),” Chambers said.
The growth prospects of the agriculture sector are likely to remain buoyant due to the pick-up in monsoon rains in the latter part of the season and subsequent increase in kharif area.
The survey was conducted in September 2021 and received responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sectors.
It said, “The GDP figures for the second quarter and the coming festive season will give a clear idea of where we are headed on the path of recovery and how the demand situation is.”
“However, a hike in the repo rate seems imminent only in the next financial year (April 2022). In addition, a staggering trend in the direction of positive real interest rates is expected. Much will depend on the increase in the level of domestic prices and the extent to which the Federal Reserve will reduce it.