Omicron triggered the third wave of COVID likely to hit on Feb 2, 2022 in India says top researchers
Amid the rise in COVID-19 cases in the country, researchers at IIT Kanpur confirmed the possibility of a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by February 3, 2022. The report, published in the online preprint health server MedRxiv, has raised another alarm. Cases of the Omicron variant are already on the rise.
“Following trends around the world, this project report predicts that India’s third wave may begin in mid-December and peak in early February”, the report said.
The statistical tool ‘Gaussian Mixture’ model was used to present an almost accurate analysis of the ongoing COVID-19 situation and predict the third wave.
The researchers studied first and second wave data in India to ascertain the future pattern of a possible third wave in the country. Special emphasis was placed on analyzing the current rise in COVID-19 cases led by Omicron in several other countries.
MedRxiv’s research team is drawn from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT-K. Sabra Prasad Rajeshbhai, Shalabh and Shubra Shankar Dhar are key members of the research team.
According to the researcher’s study, “Cases reach a peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of COVID-19. Therefore, Cases start increasing around December 15, 2021 and the peak of the third wave will be on Thursday, February 3, 2022.”
Earlier, members of the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee had predicted a third wave to hit the country in early 2022. The head of the committee, Vidyasagar, said that the third wave will be lighter than the second wave.
India’s Omicron tally has already crossed 350, and the government has warned that people should remain vigilant and follow all COVID necessary protocols as the world sees a fourth surge in COVID cases.
As the world still comes to grips with the version of the coronavirus said to be highly transmissible if not deadlier than the delta version that has shrugged off the chances of a pandemic-free 2022, a fresh surge in the US and Europe is now being blamed. Combination of both.
Delmicron, a combination of the Delta and Omicron variants of the virus, can transmit even more rapidly. While only one mutant strain is involved in COVID-19 infections, in extremely rare cases the two may strike together.
Omicron
Omicron, responsible for 73% of fresh infections last week, has become the dominant form in the US, the Associated Press reports. According to US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, over 99.5% of infections in the country in November were due to the delta variant. Now, however, the Omicron version has overtaken Delta as the dominant strain.
In the UK, daily Covid-19 cases crossed the 100,000 mark for the first time on Wednesday, the BBC reported, attributed to Omicron. However, symptoms are milder than in previous forms and hospitalization is less likely.
Delmicron vs Omicron
Omicron is a mutated B.1.1.1.529 form of SARS-CoV-2, which was first detected in South Africa last month. This variant spreads rapidly, but its symptoms are, at present, reported to be milder than those of the delta variant. The death rate is also low. Delmicron, on the other hand, is a combination of Delta and Omicron – the twin spike of the variant.
Delmicron Traits
Delmicron’s traits are similar to those of the Omicron and Delta variants. These include high temperature, persistent cough, loss of taste or smell, runny nose, headache and sore throat. While delta causes more severe symptoms, the omicron mutation is highly transmitted.
Moderna’s chief medical officer, Dr Paul Burton, said a new super-variant would be created if the Omicron and delta variants infect someone at the same time.
Dr Burton told the Daily Mail earlier this month that the papers, published data from South Africa before the pandemic, suggest that people, especially those who are immunocompromised, can harbor both strains.
Burton told the UK Parliament’s Science and Technology Committee that it was possible they could swap genes and trigger a dangerous variant.
Dr Shashank Joshi, member of Maharashtra’s Covid-19 Task Force, in response to a tweet to industrialist Harsh Goenka, said that Omicron was still not causing serious illness in the US and Europe. However, the delta tension was still more frightening. Now the twin Delmicron variant in Europe and North America.