New Delhi: Minimum temperatures in West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana Chandigarh and Delhi (HCD), Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim (SHWB), Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathwada, and Vidarbha are below normal.
There is a possibility. Potential forecasts for average temperatures indicate that normal temperatures are likely to be below average in most subdivisions of India. Scattered rain/snowfall is expected at some places in the Western Himalayan region, while light rains may occur over Punjab, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan, and West Uttar Pradesh on January 8, 2021. During the next 2-3 days, there is a possibility of widespread rains in southern peninsular India and very heavy and normal thunderstorms and lightning at some places. During the next 2 days, isolated thunderstorms are likely to occur at isolated places in Maharashtra along with scattered lightning. On January 10 and 11, 2021, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, and Maharashtra are expected to receive widespread rainfall and very heavy rainfall at some places.
Weather forecast for January 2021 according to the National Weather Forecast Center of Meteorological Department (IMD):
The temperature probabilities for January 2021 indicate subdivision potential forecasts and subdivision average minimum average maximum and average temperature anomalies (changes in the long-term normal), respectively.
Potential forecasts for minimum temperatures indicate that West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana Chandigarh and Delhi (HCD), Sub-Himalayan West-Bengal and Sikkim (SHWB), Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathawada And minimum temperatures are expected to be below normal in the subdivisions of Vidarbha, Punjab, East, and West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, the Gangetic Plain (GWB) of West Bengal, Telangana and North-Interior Karnataka (NIK) and the climate in minimum temperatures The possibility of related changes has been expressed.
In other subdivisions of the country, the minimum temperature is expected to be above normal.
Potential forecasts for maximum temperature indicate that all subdivisions of sub-peninsular India and most of the subdivisions of central India (west and east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, and central Maharashtra) and western India (Gujarat region and Saurashtra and Kutch) The maximum temperature is likely to be above normal in some subdivisions.
Potential forecasts for average temperatures (Fig. 10C) indicate that average temperatures are likely to be below normal in most subdivisions of India. However, average temperatures are expected to be above normal in most of the subdivisions along the Konkan and Goa, coastal Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and the Himalayan and North-East India hills. Average temperatures in Kerala and Tamil Nadu are expected to be normal.
Rain forecast Rainfall during week 1: (07 to 13 January 2021) Due to the effect of a western disturbance in the form of a cyclonic circulation over the western parts of Afghanistan and above the central and upper tropospheric levels, there is sporadic light rain, snowfall in the western Himalayan region and Punjab, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan, and West Uttar Pradesh on January 08, 2021, There is a possibility of sporadic rains. The weather is not expected to change in northwest India during the subsequent 5-6 days.
Due to the effect of a cyclonic circulation over the southeastern Arabian Sea and other cyclonic circulation in the south Tamil Nadu coast and surrounding areas in the lower tropospheric levels, there is widespread rains over southern Peninsular India during the next 2-3 days. There is a possibility of heavy rain along with thunderstorms and lightning.
Due to the formation of the low-pressure area in the eastern direction at low levels from the Karnataka coast to Maharashtra at lower tropospheric levels, there is a possibility of light rains with lightning thunderstorms and lightning at some places in Maharashtra during the next 2 days.
Due to the fresh impact of the eastern strong wave, there is a possibility of widespread and very widespread rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe on 10 to 11 January 2021. Significant rainfall is not expected in the remaining parts of the country during this week.
Possibility of excess rainfall and snowfall in the western Himalayan region during the first week overall in the South Peninsula and Central India.
Rainfall during the second week: (14-20 January 2021)
There is a possibility of less rain/snowfall in the western Himalayas due to no active western disturbance. Due to the fresh western wave, there is a possibility of more than normal rainfall in southern India.
Rainfall during the third week: (22nd to 28th January 2021)
More than normal rainfall is expected in far southeastern peninsular India and less than normal in the western Himalayan region. There will be dry weather in the rest of the country.
Status of North-East Monsoon Rainfall in South-Eastern Peninsular India from October 1 to December 31, 2020
Five meteorological subdivisions viz. Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Peninsula of South Interior of South Peninsula receive about 30 percent of the annual rainfall during the Northeast Monsoon season (October to December) especially this season. Tamil Nadu receives about 48 percent of its annual rainfall. Figure 1 shows the overall northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) as compared to these five subdivisions. This NEMR shows that the actual rainfall during October-December 2020 was 10.3 percent higher than the long-term average of 33.76 cm. This is the highest rainfall during the last 5-years (2016–2020).
The progress of NEMR in Tamil Nadu has been the most variable in the year 2020 although it decreased from 1 November to 11 November with cumulative rainfall departures of the season from normal to -46 percent during 1 October to 11 November. However, during the second fortnight of November 2020 and the first week of December 2020, Tamil Nadu Puducherry and the southeast peninsula of its surroundings experienced a significant increase in rainfall. This was due to the rise and rise of two cyclones in Tamil Nadu during this period. From November 21 to 27, a very severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal moved towards northern Tamil Nadu.
Cyclonic storm ‘Burevi’ (first 3 December 2020) crossed Sri Lanka as a cyclonic storm and emerged into the Gulf of Mannar on 2 December 2020. Subsequently, on 03 December it crossed the South Tamil Nadu coast near Pamban. It later weakened into a deep disturbance and came into the Gulf of Mannar near the coast of Ramanathapuram district that same evening. It then weakened into deep turbulence in the same region and remained practically stable during the next 36 hours.
As a result, during the period from 1 October to 9 December 2020, cumulative rainfall in terms of departure from normal in Tamil Nadu improved to 2 December and Tamil Nadu received more rainfall by 9 December 2020. However, there was no significant rainfall in the peninsular region due to the absence of any major weather system from 10–31 December. The cumulative NEMR declined by more than 6 percent from 1 October to 31 October in Tamil Nadu.
Monthly rainfall scenario across the country (01 to 31 December 2020)
The country received a total of 17 mm of rainfall in December 2020, 2 percent lower than the long-term average of 17.4 mm, but 53 percent higher than the LPA compared to the South Peninsula. Its details are given below:
Rainfall in India during December 2020
Area Actual Rainfall (mm) Normal Rainfall (mm) Departure Percentage of LPA
17 17.4 -2% across the country as a whole.
northwest India 16 21 -24% Central India 4.4 6.7 -34% South Peninsula 51.2 33.4 53% East and Northeast India 3.2 13 -75%
During this month 6 subdivisions received very high, 3 in excess, 5 received normal rainfall while the remaining subdivisions received little or very little rainfall (reference Figure-3). The rainfall was mainly confined to the southern parts of peninsular India, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and parts of western India. The northern plains, central, eastern parts and northeastern India received light rainfall during the month (see Figure 2).
Frequency of heavy rainfall events
The incidence of heavy rainfall events is shown.
On one day of the month, heavy, very heavy and very heavy rains occurred at some places in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
During this month, heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at sporadic places in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal in five days.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Rayalaseema received heavy rainfall in sporadic places in three days. Rainfall occurred in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and Lakshadweep for two days and Kerala and Mahe and Andaman and Nicobar islands one day.