New Delhi: According to the National Meteorological Forecasting Center of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), six disturbances and four induced cyclonic movements affected northwest India during February 2021.
Two of these disturbances promoted good rain / snowfall activities in the Western Himalayan region from sporadic to far-flung. Splatter activity was observed in Northwest India and adjoining plains with sporadic rain / thunderstorms. During the passing of these two systems, hailstorm activity was also recorded at some places in the Western Himalayan region.
(B) Moisture in Central, Peninsular and adjoining Eastern India:
During 16 to 19 February, there was a period of humidity in central and eastern India and Maharashtra and there was hailstorm at some places. Slow level easterly winds moved from 19 to 22 February over the peninsular India under the influence of the central latent westerly winds in the middle and upper troposphere.
(C) Monthly rainfall scenario in the country (01 to 28 February 2021)
The country received 7.6 mm of rainfall during the month of February, 2021, which was -68 percent lower than the long-term average (LPA) of 23.5 mm as per Table 1. Figure 1 shows the subdivision-wise rainfall of the Meteorological Department in January 2021. During this month, 9 subdivisions received heavy rainfall while 2 subdivisions received normal or remaining 23 subdivisions with heavy or no rainfall and 2 subdivisions (Saurashtra and Kutch and West Rajasthan) did not receive any rainfall at all.
(D) There was an unusual long period of dense fog during 10-22 February 2021 in Punjab and Haryana.
According to surface observations and satellite photos obtained from INSAT 3D, during the period 10-22 February 2021, most areas of Punjab and Haryana continued to have dense fog and fog farther away from late night to dawn almost every day. The coverage of this dense fog is shown in Figure 2, according to photographs taken by Inset 3D of this dense fog during the period 11–21 February 2021 at 08:45 daily.
Due to such dense fog, visibility in these areas was reduced to less than 200 meters from night to morning on most days. In Amritsar during 1-28 February 2021, dense fog enveloped the entire month for 168 hours over 15 days. This dense fog continued to move eastwards in parts of Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh and southward in the northwestern parts of Rajasthan (reference Figure 2). This situation persisted for about 7 to 10 days. The assessment was carried out for a total of 28 hours at Indira Gandhi Airport for seven days.
Potential forecasts for maximum temperatures (Fig. 3A) indicate that the plains of north India are likely to have higher than normal temperatures in the adjacent Himalayas, west, east and north-east India, and some subdivisions of central India. is.
Potential forecast for minimum temperature (Fig. 3B) indicates that most subdivisions of North India, as well as the Himalayan mountains, northeast India and some subdivisions of west and western coastal India, are likely to have higher than normal minimum temperatures. . The minimum temperatures are expected to be below normal in the subdivisions of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Potential forecast for moderate temperatures (Fig. 3C) indicates that North India as well as the Himalayan foothills, northwest, west, north east and eastern India and some subdivisions of the west coast have above normal moderate temperatures. There is a possibility.
Forecast: Rain Forecast
Week 1 (5 – 11 March, 2021)
Due to the effect of the current Western Disturbance (WD), light sporadic rain / snowfall is expected over the WHR on 4 and 5 March 2021. Subsequently, a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the WHR and the surrounding plains from 6 March and it is expected to result in good rain / snowfall throughout the region from 6 to 8 March. Heavy rains are likely to occur at some places in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan and Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on 07 March with lightening and snowfall. There is a possibility of scattered light to moderate rain / drizzle in Punjab on 06 and 07 March. Light rain / drizzle is likely to occur at isolated places over North Haryana, Chandigarh and adjoining western Uttar Pradesh on March 07.
Subsequently, the WHR is likely to be affected by two consecutive western disturbances from 9 to 15 March. There is a possibility of good rain / snowfall from sporadic to very far in this region. (See Figure 4 and 5).
Overall, there is a possibility of good rains in the northeastern states during the first week and thunderstorms / thunderstorms may occur at some places.
Overall rainfall activity is expected to be above normal in the WHR and northeastern states during the first week.
During 11-13 March 2021, light rains and lightning are expected to occur at isolated places in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha.
Week 2 (March 12 – 18, 2021)
During the second week, Jammu and Kashmir is expected to receive more than normal rainfall and the remaining WHR and northeastern states will receive more than normal rainfall. The rest of the country is expected to receive less than normal or normal rainfall. (See Figure 4 and 5).
Week 3: (19 to 25 March)
In the third week, normal rains are likely over most parts of India including Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining parts of northern India. Lack of any major western disturbance is expected to bring normal to above normal rainfall in southwestern peninsular India and northeastern states. (See Figure 4 and 5).
Week 4: 26–31 March, 2021
In the fourth week, more than normal rains are likely over Jammu and Kashmir and parts of Punjab, Haryana, parts of Rajasthan, parts of northeastern states, Maharashtra and southern parts of peninsular India. The rest of the country is expected to receive less than normal or normal rainfall. (See Figure 4 and 5).
There is no possibility of any cyclone in the North Indian Ocean during the next two weeks.