The front of Bihar’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may fall short of a clear majority in the assembly elections, according to estimates of three exit polls conducted by media houses. The Times Now C-Voter exit poll, released minutes after voting ended on Saturday evening, said the NDA could end up with only 116 seats in the 243-member House, seven short of the majority mark of 122. The Republic TV-Jaan talk exit poll projected anything between 91 to 117 seats for the NDA while the ABP C-Voter exit poll indicated that the NDA may get between 104 and 128 seats in the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections .
Tejashwi Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, who led the opposition alliance, is estimated to get around 120 seats by the Times Now Sea-Voter exit poll. Republic TV-Jan Ki Bait may get RJD alliance 118-138, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 5 to 8 and others 3 to 6. The ABP C-Voter exit poll stated that there is likely to be a Grand Alliance somewhere in the Bihar Legislative Assembly between 108-131. According to ABP C-Voter, LJP could have won 1-3 seats.
Today’s Chanakya exit poll suggested that the grand alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav would be far ahead of the ruling NDA with 44% vote share. The NDA’s vote share was pegged at 34%, it indicated. India Today-Axis My India said that Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the first choice for the Chief Minister’s chair with the support of 44% of the respondents. Nitish Kumar, who has been the Chief Minister of Bihar for 14 years, is backing for a second term with 35% of the respondents. Chirag Paswan of LJP was the first priority for just 7% of the people.
Leading campaigners on both sides made bitter allegations in the three-phase Bihar assembly elections that began on October 28 and ended on Saturday. All political parties brought their star campaigners in the election campaign, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, BJP President JP Nadda and Congress’s Rahul Gandhi, who helped voters in high-level elections to lure them. The counting of votes recorded in thousands of computerized machines will start from November 10 and the results are expected by noon.
Exit polls, a poll of voters taken soon after exiting polling stations, have often found the number of seats wrong in the past. To govern, a party or coalition needs to win 122 seats. In 2015, Bihar elections were held in five phases through October-November before the end of the term of the former Legislative Assembly on 29 November. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 80 seats, followed by the JD (U) with 71 seats and the BJP with 53 seats. In terms of vote share, BJP came first with 24.4%, followed by RJD with 18.4% and JD (U) with 16.8% and Congress with 6.7%.
RJD contested from 144 seats, Congress in 70 and CPI (ML) in Bihar assembly elections in 19. From NDA, JD (U) contested 115 seats and BJP 110.
In the last Bihar assembly elections of 2015, Nitish Kumar had a fight between the Janata Dal (United) and the NDA without a grand alliance or a grand alliance. The JD (U) was part of the grand alliance, which also included the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress. This year JDU is now with BJP.
The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which was part of the NDA in 2015, has decided to go it alone. The Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), another former ally of the BJP, has joined hands with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) of Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav. Democratic Front this year.
The NDA includes Janata Dal (United), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) of former Chief Minister Jeetan Ram Manjhi and Vikasshehe Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahani. Apart from Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) are other allies of the Grand Alliance.
The Janata Adhikar Party (JAP) is headed by the Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) led by Rajesh Ranjan, popularly known as Pappu Yadav, and Azad Samaj Party of Chandra Shekhar Azad, the chief of the Bhim Army. The Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) consists of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP), All Indian Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Democratic Party and Samajwadi Janata Dal Democratic.